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The Subnational Climate Mapping Study

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The Society for Planet and Prosperity, in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change, the Federal Ministry of Environment and the Nigeria Governors Forum, developed a Study Project on “Mapping Climate Impacts, Policies and Actions at the Subnational Level in Nigeria”. The study is conceived as a first step to galvanise awareness for climate action at sub-national levels in Nigeria and ensure improved climate change action and resilience among the state actors. The project, while measuring the extent of climate change awareness and action in the 36 states of the Federation including the FCT, aimed to map the impact of climate change in the 36 states; map the nature of climate policies and actions in place in the states; and provide a better understanding of the kind of support needed by the states to domesticate climate policies and attract climate finance and investments. This is a timely one; because it underlines the peculiar needs of the different subnational units of the country, in other to encourage improved action either by government, civil society, the private sector, or international donor agencies.

The study took on two methodologies to get the required result on the subnational climate mapping. The first research methodology was a desktop study and literature review, which involved a comprehensive review of online publicity, state policy frameworks, allocated state budget on climate finance, programs/activities and action plans; evaluate the effectiveness of climate actions in each state and how they can be improved; assess the alignment of subnational climate actions with existing national frameworks and economic development plans. The second methodology was the use of a survey tool to collate feedback on the opinions, perspectives and thoughts of subnational stakeholders on climate impact, policy and action at the subnational level in Nigeria as part of our research study.

The information from the data analysis of the study is presented in a report finding, which was launched on the 17th of November, 2023, and can be accessed and downloaded via: https://sppnigeria.org/climate-impacts-policies-and-actions-at-the-sub-national-level-in-nigeria/

Study Findings from the SURVEY ANALYSIS

A survey tool was designed to gather feedback, perspectives and inputs from subnational stakeholders on the mapping of climate impacts, policies and action plans at the state level. A total of 1,306 participants responded to the survey across all states (study area) of Nigeria and the FCT; of which about 90% of respondents agree that climate change is a big issue amongst the subnational; with 91% of the survey participants concurring that their states are vulnerable to climate change induced environmental challenge and impacts. Respondents, who were mainly from the relevant state government civil service, were asked to rank their knowledge of climate change. The climate knowledge rating of the 1,306 respondents shows that 61.3% of the respondents claimed to have an average knowledge of climate change, while 33.1% claimed to have a high-level knowledge of climate change. Only 15.6% said they have low knowledge of climate change. This means the respondents have a wide knowledge of climate change.

Study Findings from DESKTOP REVIEW

Online Awareness of Climate Issues

The research review shows that States with High Online Visibility, in terms of climate change awareness, functional websites and internet mentions of climate change activities by the state government include 5 states only: Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Plateau and Taraba.

States with Low (6 states) and Very Low (5 states) Online Visibility are Ekiti, Kogi, Benue, Abia, Bayelsa and Jigawa States; and Zamfara, Katsina, Imo, Rivers and Edo States respectively.

This is according to the score rankings, as seen in the Map below.

Map of Subnational Climate Change Online Visibility/Awareness

Climate Policy

Only seven (7) states have climate policy documents that can be found online. These include Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Lagos, Osun, Rivers, and Yobe. Amongst them, Rivers and Ebonyi States have upgraded their policies to Climate Change Law/Act. Eight (8) States seem to have climate policies or some related documents that are not fully finalised or adopted. These include Akwa-Ibom, Anambra, Enugu, Kaduna, Kogi, Nasarawa, Plateau, and Ondo. The rest 24 states have no evidence of a climate policy in the states, according to the desktop review of existing subnational climate policies in Nigeria.

Map of Subnational Climate Change Policies

 

It was observed that most of these states with an existing active Climate Action Plan are very close to establishing a Climate Policy. The survey analysis also confirms that most State Governments have also started the process of establishing a Climate Policy.

Climate Action Plan

Thirteen States and the FCT have climate change action plans. These include Nasarawa, Yobe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Anambra, Ebonyi, Niger, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, Lagos, Osun and Ondo. Lagos State has the most ambitious Climate Action Plan (2020-2025) to transform “the State into an emission-neutral city by 2050”.

Map of Subnational Climate Change Action Plan

Climate Change Appropriation as provided in the State Annual Budget

The 2023 budget of the 36 states was reviewed to see the extent to which specific provision is made for climate action in these states. It was found that a large number of States make provisions for climate-related activities and procurements. However, most states do not make a particular appropriation specified for climate change; as the 8 states found to have a clearly labelled Climate Change Budget Allocation for climate project programs and activities include Nasarawa, Plateau, Yobe, Jigawa, Anambra, Ebonyi, Ondo, and Ogun.

Map to show States with an appropriation for climate change in their Budget

Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Climate impacts vary across the states in Nigeria.  States within the same or similar ecological zone share broadly the same climate impacts and vulnerabilities. In the North-central region, Flooding, Desert encroachment, Farmers/herders clashes, and Drought are the dominant climate impacts in the north-central states of Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Plateau, FCT, and Niger. These impacts, in addition to Heat extreme and loss of crop yield, are also attributable to the other 12 States of the North-west and North-east regions. The main impacts of climate change in the South (South-east, South-west, South-south) include Gully Erosion, Loss of crop yield and arable land, Farmer/herders clash, Flooding, Coastal Erosion, Sea level rise, and Heat waves. It is important to point out that temperature changes are constant climate change impacts for the entire country. This has resulted from an increase in global warming and irregular rainfall patterns.

The map below shows the Climate Impact, as spread across the entire subnational.

Map of Subnational Climate Change Impact/Vulnerabilities

 

With the recent gains from COP28, Nigeria now has an opportunity to incorporate subnational action plans and state policies on climate change. As the federal government progresses on their National commitments, there needs to be a way to ensure their actions are mainstreamed into the state level and even tracked consistently, such as through the enactment of climate policies and allocated budget and action plans on climate change programmes, projects and activities, including high-level climate education and intentional capacity building.

Timothy Ogenyi
Senior Climate Policy Analyst,
Society for Planet and Prosperity