Category Archives: NDC Blog Posts

For weeks we have talked to you about the revision of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), its objectives and the need for the public to be engaged with the NDCs.

The NDC is the document where Nigeria states the major actions it will take – both mitigation and adaptation – to address the threat of climate change. Nigeria is among the 190 countries that voluntarily submitted her NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2015, is currently working on the revision of the initial proposal.

Now, we will like to hear from you, by taking part in the NDC Challenge

To participate, write a blog post of not more than 600 words on “Effects of Climate Change on my Environment, and how Nigeria’s NDCs can address it”.

Instructions

1. You must follow and like our page
2. Send your essay to funai@gmail.comor judenwasum@gmail.com
3. Get your friends to follow our page and like your story when published on our page.
4. You must send your essay on or before 6pm, Sunday 30th August 2020.

*Note: Selected essays that are of good quality will be posted on our Facebook page and published on our blog. Out of the selected essays three prizes will be awarded. The selected essays as well as the award winning essays will be determined by our team of experts. In choosing the winning essays, the number of likes, comments and shares will be considered. However, the winning essays will be based ultimately on the overall quality as determined by the Director.

*Rewards

First prize: – 10,000.

Second prize: 7,000

Third prize: 5,000.

The winning essays will also be published on EnviroNews.

The selected essays will be published on September 7 and the winning essays will be announced on September 18.

By Dr Chinwe Ogunji

Fellow CCCD

Climate change can be regarded as one of the utmost challenges facing the world today and it is possibly the single most significant environmental problem of our time. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC, 2007; 2018) has adopted a firmly unequivocal and more urgent tone declaring that climate change is happening faster and, in some cases with more severe impacts than scientists had predicted.  In addition to the IPCC, various other reports have predicted that global climate change will have drastic consequences for human society and global ecosystems especially in developing countries like Nigeria.

Nigeria has been experiencing significant changes in her climate with the consequence of increased temperature, irregular rainfall, recurring extreme weather events, drought and desertification, rise in sea level and flooding, land degradation and loss of biodiversity etc, (Elisha et al., 2017). The climate change associated challenges vary across the country with low precipitation in the North and high precipitation in parts of the Southwest and Southeast (Haider, 2019) leading to drought and desertification in the north and flooding and erosion in the South (Akande et al., 2017). All this suggest the need for urgent and transformative action on the part of the government and other key stakeholder.

Though climate change is adjudged a coffee-table-discussion-topic among the masses now-a-days, not everyone is aware of the negative effects of climate change. The Building Nigerian Response to Climate Change project (BNRCC, 2011) reported a low level of public awareness on issues related to climate change in Nigeria. A major reason given for the low level of awareness is insufficient attention given to climate change issues by Nigerian media (Ajaero & Anorue, 2018).

The big question arises as to what could be done to abate the high susceptibility of Nigeria to the impacts of climate change. One important response should be the provision and intensification of climate change education (CCE) in schools and communities. Climate change education (CCE) is defined as one that gives the knowledge and tools needed by citizens so as to be environmentally literate and ready to face environmental and social challenges with confidence and optimism.  Its importance cannot be overemphasized. Education is helpful in understanding and addressing the impact of global warming, increasing “climate literacy”, encouraging changes in attitudes and behaviors among young people and helping them in adapting to climate change related trends, (UNESCO, 2019).

UN Alliance on Climate Change Education, Training and Public Awareness declared Climate Education as a “Driver of Change”. In essence, capacities for addressing the climate crisis can be developed by mainstreaming climate change education throughout formal education systems given the multiplier effects of individuals passing on what they have learned to families and communities, (Mochizuki & Bryan 2015). In other words, CCE contributes to enhancing bottom-up solutions to a global problem since children learn about natural risks at school and then pass same information onto their parents.

Climate change education helps to build resilience in our communities. The knowledge to be acquired from such awareness and education equips the citizens with the knowledge, information, dispositions, skills and values of how to respond safely to disasters like floods, drought and bushfires. Krasny & DuBois, (2016) have observed that acquiring knowledge of adaptation is considered essential in order to reduce risk and vulnerability while building adaptive capacity and resilience. Educating people on climate change improves their ability to assimilate information, speculate likely dangers ahead of time, prepare for climate disasters and recover from their effects. CCE is a key factor in curbing climate change when it is focused on children and young people. CCE develops a caring culture for our climate among the citizens. This plays a significant role in bringing about a long-term behavioral and attitudinal changes in citizens.

In summary, Nigeria is facing the impacts of climate change like rising temperatures, floods and changes in rainfall pattern among others. If these continue without deliberate intervention to abate its consequences, the future may be unbearable. The level of information available influences the awareness level on climate change issues. Hence, there is need to empower the citizenry with adequate knowledge regarding climate change. CCE should be included in the curriculum of schools at all levels. The media must stand up to their responsibilities of informing the populace. Scientists must be conscious to communicate their researches. Climate Change Education must be put on the front burner. This will help to build sustainable and resilient communities. No one else can do it for Nigeria except all of us. Nigeria’s climate change impact reduction must be driven by the people of Nigeria through CCE.

Haider, H. (2019). Climate change in Nigeria: Impacts and responses. K4D Helpdesk Report 675. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies

Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., … & Connors, S. (2018). Global warming of 1.5 C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of, 1.5 degree warming. Cambridge, UK and New York: Cambridge University Press.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2012). Summary for policymakers. In: Field,

CB, Barros, V, Stocker, TE, Qin, D, Dokken, DJ, Ebi, KL, Mastrandrea, MD, Mach, KJ, Plattner,

GK, Allen, SK, et al. editors. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate

change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York: Cambridge University Press; p. 1–19.

Mochizuki, Y., & Bryan, A. (2015). Climate change education in the context of education for sustainable development: Rationale and principles. Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 9(1), 4–26.

Krasny, M. E., & DuBois, B. (2016). Climate adaptation education: embracing reality or abandoning environmental values. Environmental Education Research, 1–12. Published online 16 June 2016.

UNESCO, (2019). Climate Change Education and Awareness. https://en.unesco.org/themes/addressing-climate-change/climate-change-education-and-awareness#:~:text=Education%20is%20an%20essential%20element,to%20climate%20change%20related%20trends.

Prof. Chukwumerije Okereke is the Director, Centre for Climate Change and Development, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ebonyi State and Coordinating Lead Author, United Nations Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He spoke to Property & Environment Editor, CHINEDUM UWAEGBULAM on Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution and how to attain a low-carbon economy.

The strategic goal of Nigeria’s response to climate change is to foster low-carbon, high growth economic development path and build a climate resilient society. Have these objectives been achieved? What steps should be taken towards a low-carbon economy?
THIS is a good question. The government has taken a range of steps to foster low-carbon economy such as drafting an ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which commits Nigeria to reducing its carbon emissions by 20per cent by 2030 compared to 2010 baseline figures and 45per cent emission reduction conditional on international support.

However, I am afraid to say that the actual efforts on ground to drive green, climate-resilient sustainable growth in Nigeria are still too little. We are not on track to end glass flaring, which contributes over 58 million tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and a significant proportion of Nigeria’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In 2014, Nigeria flared 10.73 billion cubic meters (m3) of its associated gas production, or 12per cent of its gross production and ranked as the world’s fifth-largest gas flaring country, accounting for 8 per cent of the total amount flared globally in 2014. Meanwhile, over 70 per cent of the Nigerian households still use dirty traditional biomass for cooking. The government urgently needs big bold steps to signal a determination to drive a green economy transition in the country.

For me, the three most important steps Nigeria should take towards fostering a low-carbon economy are to urgently draft a national green growth plan, establish an inter-ministerial institution to drive the green growth agenda, and sign a climate change bill into law. My experience from studying and working with several governments around the world, including Rwanda, Ethiopia, the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom, among several others, is that one of the most important condition for fostering low-carbon economy in any country is a strong political will from the highest positions of power in the country.

Climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity today. It is evident in Nigeria through increases in temperature; variable rainfall; rise in sea level and flooding; drought and desertification; land degradation and loss of biodiversity. What should be the response of the government to these impacts?
You are right about the devastating and ever-increasing impact of climate change on several sectors of the Nigerian economy. The government’s own records suggest that Nigeria may already be losing between 2-11per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per year to climate change impacts. It has been estimated that the 2012 flood caused Nigeria a total damage amounting to about N6 trillion, representing 1.4 per cent of real GDP growth in that year. Some models estimate that climate change may cost $460 billion by 2050. Nigeria may lose up to 50per cent of its agricultural yield to climate change by 2050 without concerted climate adaptation measures. We cannot afford to fold our hands and look.

Large proposition of the population, especially in the Niger Delta are coastal communities that may be wiped away with 0.7cm sea-level rise due to climate change. Several northern communities are vulnerable to flood and desertification and most of the states in the South East are challenged by climate change induced erosion and land degradation. I do not want to cause panic but I must warn that trillions of naira pension fund investment and assets may well be at risk to climate change. We cannot afford to be onlookers.

Governments needs to quickly draft a comprehensive national climate change adaptation plan with concrete action plan and programme to help the country respond to the menace of climate change. The closest Nigeria has come to having a national climate adaptation plan was way back in 2011 and there is an urgent need to update the document. A key part of such a plan has to be a robust Geographic Information System (GIS)-based vulnerability mapping to identify communities most at risk of climate related impacts as well as the identification of appropriate measures to enhance adaptation and resilience at local community levels.
Nigeria seems not to be on track to meet the Paris Agreement target, as energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are growing due to increased fossil fuel consumption. Do you see renewable uptake, energy efficiency and energy access as key to the progress in that area? How?

I am afraid that you are right about the unlikelihood of our meeting our Paris commitment as contained in NDC document. We are not on track to achieving 2.5per cent improvement in energy efficiency per year and 20 per cent improvement by the end of 2020. We are not on track to providing 10 per cent of our total energy from renewable sources by 2025 or adding an additional 13,000 MW of renewable off-grid electricity to rural communities by 2030.

Instead, one sees an increasing number of high-polluting diesel generators in every nook and cranny of Nigerian cities. I have been making the point that one of the greatest opportunities that climate change presents to Nigeria is to address the dreadful and crippling problem of energy poverty in the country by driving a green energy revolution.

There are substantial potentials for the utilization of solar thermal, wind turbine, small hydro-power and bio-energy technology in the country, judging from a plethora of literature in the open domain. UNIDO once commissioned an off-grid 0.4 MW small hydro-power plant in the Northern part of the country, which showed great promise. The opportunity in energy generation, employment creation, and industrial growth is huge.

I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the uptake of modern renewable energy can be boosted in this country. However, we need a smart, ambitious and well-coordinated plan. We need the right mix of policy signal and incentives coupled with investment in technologies, innovation and the human resource development.
The World Bank estimated that Nigeria and others in sub-Saharan Africa would contribute largely to 143 million climate migrants by 2050. What should the federal and state authorities do to forestall environmental migration?

The number is terrifying. The point of this figure is that climate change poses far-reaching human and national security challenges to Nigeria and other African countries. It is important to note that climate-induced migration can create tensions in destination areas, which can in turn result in conflict and war. The dynamic is that large-scale population movements can lead to sudden scarcity of resources and services in areas that previously had surplus. And when conditions of scarcity occur due to either increased consumption or environmental degradation, competition inevitably ensues among users of the scarce resources. Fierce competition could lead to competing claims and conflict among rival user groups. Unresolved conflict in a timely and friendly manner may result in violence. Once a state of violence occurs, people fleeing areas of violence may create new demands for resources elsewhere.

In this manner, states of violence acts as a negative feedback mechanism on resource scarcity that further exacerbate competition and conflict for scarce resources. The remedy is not to wait until things get out of hand. The government needs to put in place both climate mitigation, adaptation measures to ensure the preservation of human security and forestall the massive, uncontrolled as well as unsustainable migration as a result of climate change and the negative chain reaction that such forced migration will cause.

With a promise of 20 per cent unconditional emission reduction and 45 per cent conditional emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 baseline scenario, Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) appears to be ambitious. Do you think the country’s NDC is achievable or realistic?  What are the obstacles in curbing Nigeria’s greenhouse gas emissions?
As previously mentioned, Nigeria is not on track to achieving these targets. I honestly don’t think that those targets were realistic. This is why I am delighted to lead a national project funded by the World Resources Institute to inject rigorous analysis and involve the Nigerian public in the revision of the NDC due for submission by the end of this year. I think Nigerians have the duty to work with the Department of Climate Change and the international experts to ensure that the goal and targets set in the revised NDC are not only ambitious but also realistic.

Crucially, we need to make sure that government has a clear intention and concrete plan to implement the commitment made. We should move beyond saying things to make us look good to the outside world, but think hard about how to align our climate change action with the broader objective of growing our industries, creating jobs, addressing unemployment and fostering a high growth climate resilient green economy.
Experts say the absence of national emission registry, containing emissions from most of the key sectors (energy, transport, and forestry) has made the NDC look like a guess projection. Do you share this opinion?

What should the Federal Government incorporate or adjust in its NDC revision process?
Yes, it is true that some of the numbers are guesstimates and it is vital to invest recurses in getting the numbers right. However, for me the more important challenge is to ensure that we have a clear plan for leveraging the global momentum for green economy transition and the vast international climate finance to protect our planet, build a sustainable low-carbon economy that delivers green jobs, and makes the society more equal and more prosperous for all. This is the task for national leadership and the task to which I am devoted to championing in the interest of present and future generations.

Nigeria started the process of revising her Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in March this year and is due to conclude the exercise in November.  The result of the process will be a revised national pledge on climate action that will be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by the end of the year. The NDCs are voluntary documents that governments agreed that Parties to the UNFCCC will submit to show what each government has committed to do in order to tackle climate change. Although the submission and commitment are voluntary; once a country submits their NDC, they are expected to keep the commitment or pledge made.

I am very delighted that the Centre for Climate Change and Development (CCCD) at Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike Ikwo (AEFUNAI), under my leadership, is implementing a World Resources Institute (WRI) funded project geared towards providing independent critical analysis and input into the revision process of Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The project is also intended to provide a platform for the general public to engage with, question, and make contribution to the country’s new NDC so that the document can truly help to drive sustainable green economic development for the country. This is a timely project which has the potential to make substantial impact in Nigeria’s and possibly Africa’s climate change policy and economic development more broadly.

Nigeria was among the 190 countries that submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC in the run up to the COP meeting in Paris in 2015. Nigeria’s INDC has since been subsequently converted into the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) following the country’s ratification of the Paris Agreement in May, 2017. A major challenge of the global climate governance is that the combined pledges made by the countries of the world fall far below what United Nations’ scientists say is needed to combat climate change. To address this emission reduction gap, countries agreed that they would review and enhance their NDCs every five years.

In its own original NDC, Nigeria committed itself to make 20% “unconditional emission reduction” of its Green House Gas emission by 2030 compared to the 2010 levels. Unconditional means that Nigeria pledged to reduce this amount of emission without any international support. Furthermore, Nigeria committed that it would increase her emission reduction to 45% by 2030 if help is received from the international development partners (see figure 1 below).

Nigeria’s NDC is built on the appealing philosophy of pursing socioeconomic development while reducing carbon pollution. It also outlines a number of measures that government said it would take to meet the self-imposed targets. A strong emphasis was also placed on adaptation given Nigerian’s vulnerability to climate change.

There are several experts that consider Nigeria’s original NDC quite ambitious. There is therefore a need to question, in this revision process, whether Nigeria should increase its NDC ambition or not, more so given the huge socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Some might say that Nigeria ought to demonstrate leadership by ratcheting its ambition, while others might say that the priority for the country for now should be on rebooting its economic growth. A critical question to ask is to what extent Nigeria has actually implemented the NDC that it pledged in 2015 and the environmental, social and economic benefits that have accrued to the country as a result. It is important to ensure that Nigeria is not simply making commitments it has no intention of achieving simply to please the developed countries that are financially supporting the NDC revision process.

In fact, some have noted that the preparation of the original NDC which started in late June 2015 was rushed to meet UNFCCC deadlines. One implication was that some of the data and analyses on which the NDC was based relied on grey literature and are judged very suspect. For example, in the absence of national emission registry, the emissions from most of the key sectors (energy, transport, and forestry) on which the NDC was based were best guess projections.

Another serious effect of the previous NDC preparation process was that it involved very limited public engagement. The consequence was that the country missed the opportunity to receive substantial inputs from critical stakeholders like businesses, parliamentarians and sub-national actors. Till date, many of these stakeholders have remained largely unaware of or had limited involvement in the implementation of the NDC. Moreover, with limited public awareness of, and engagement with the development of the original NDC, there was not much from the civil society in the way of monitoring the implementation (or lack) of the NDC following its ratification in 2017.

The WRI funded project on “Promoting Public Engagement with Nigeria’s NDC Revision and Climate Action” implemented by CCCD at AEFUNAI is designed to help address these pertinent questions. The project is intended to increase public awareness of, and stakeholders’ engagement in, the revision and subsequent implementation of the revised NDC. It is also expected that the project will increase public awareness of climate change in Nigeria more broadly.

The project will help to widen the horizon of the discourse and strongly compliment the current government-led NDC revision process with the support of the NDC Partnership through the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP), by injecting academic analysis and more public debate into the process.

The project will promote series of national virtual dialogues to provide opportunity to national and international experts to analyse various aspects of the NDC. The national dialogue will also be a platform for a range of various stakeholders to engage in the revision of the NDC as well as monitor its implementation. The project will complement the government led process and help to open up the process to the participation of more stakeholders and the general public as well as help to increase public awareness of climate change more broadly.